Happy October! On par with a normal presidential campaign season, this first week in October has been full of surprises, with Trump and other prominent Republican’s COVID diagnosis as the biggest shocker of the week. 

An “October surprise” is the event that changes the presidential campaign and potentially the outcome. One candidate’s campaign is damaged, while the others’ is boosted. The surprise can be a premeditated political attack from one campaign towards the other, or something unplanned that can change the course of an election and sway undecided voters. Oftentimes, there are multiple October surprises that occur prior to Election Day. 

Last month, it was believed that the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg might have been an early October surprise. It was a shocking turn of events that would give President Trump the opportunity to nominate another justice to the Supreme Court before the election, with many people already voting in some states. 

But, in the last week, the New York Times reported that Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes in his first year as president, and Trump and Biden had their first presidential debate that was chaotic and Trump continuously interrupted Biden and refused to condemn white supremacists. Then, on Thursday night, recordings of Melania Trump were leaked of her talking about the family separations at the border and complaining about decorating for Christmas. 

Now none of those stories, which would have ordinarily dominated the news cycle, are in the news, as President Trump has tested positive for COVID. At his age of 74 and based on his weight category, he is considered high risk. And after months downplaying the pandemic that killed more than 200,000 Americans and not taking it seriously, Trump has become a victim of his own failed response to the Coronavirus. 

Although it feels like a lifetime ago, 2016 was also filled with October surprises that took place over the course of the month leading up to Election Day. The famous Access Hollywood tape revealed in mid-October Trump making derogatory comments about women. Many pundits and reporters believed that this was the end of Trump’s campaign in 2016. Behind closed doors, prominent Republicans wanted Trump to step down and let Pence lead the ticket instead. But in another turn of events just 11 days before Election Day, the FBI reopened an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s staff and their use of a private email server. After the election, many have stated the Comey letter is what cost Clinton the presidency. 

Trump’s COVID diagnosis did not upend his campaign and destroy it, but rather it confirmed to voters the president has not taken this pandemic seriously enough, even to protect himself. According to the latest Politico/Morning Consult Poll, 63% of voters believe that President Trump did not take proper precautions to prevent himself from catching the Coronavirus. 

It is merely the first week of October, with a little less than a month until Election Day. Although early voting has begun in many states, there is still plenty of time for another October surprise.

President Trump made a significant number of false claims during Tuesday nights’ presidential debate, but one topic he was especially dishonest about was mail in voting, despite the fact that there is no real danger to voting by mail. 

Trump made claims during the debate that, “the ballots are a disaster,” and “it’s a rigged election.” These claims are false, since fraud occurring in U.S. elections is rare, whether it is in person voting or by mail. In nine states and the District of Columbia, voters will receive mail ballots without having to request them prior. Five of those states that are automatically sending mail ballots, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, Hawaii and Washington, have held their elections mostly by mail in the past. There have not been any major instances of fraud since they altered their voting process. 

Trump also made the statement that people are being sent two ballots. He stated: “They’re being sent all over the place. They sent two in a Democrat area — they sent out a thousand ballots. Everybody got two ballots. This is going to be a fraud like you’ve never seen.”

What Trump may have been referring to was the error in Fairfax County, Virginia. An estimated 1,000 voters were sent two ballots in this county. Fairfax County officials explained that when anyone returns a ballot with their vote, it is marked in their voter record, so they cannot vote twice. This will not create fraud, since it is being marked if someone casts a vote the first time. 

What can be done to counter this misinformation that is spewed by the president and his staff? It is important to spread the truth about mail in voting and encourage public officials to discuss the positivity of mail in voting. 

Trump has claimed in the past that with the expansion of mail in voting, “you would never have a Republican elected in this country again.” Mail in voting does increase turnout in elections. Usually turnout is increased in groups that do not vote, such as young people and first time voters. This is most likely because voting by mail is easier for young people who are in college or working full time. When Colorado switched to all mail in voting, the state had an increase in voter turnout of 9 percent. Among young people, the increase was almost double. Turnout also does not change the results of an election as President Trump has claimed. Despite the increase in turnout, neither Democrats or Republicans get a greater increase in vote share. 

Public officials also need to educate voters. In 2016, nearly one in four voters cast their ballots by mail. Yet, most Americans still vote in person on Election Day. Citizens are used to heading to their polling place on Election Day to cast their ballot. It makes sense that Americans are concerned about voting by mail if they have never done so before. 

Many officials in Democratic states have helped the citizens of their state to vote safely on Election Day. Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey has done an excellent job of educating citizens of New Jersey about the options they have to vote on Election Day. The New Jersey Division of Elections launched a voter information portal as a one stop shop for voters to find information in New Jersey. There are links to see if one is registered, tracking one’s absentee ballot, secure drop box locations, polling locations and more. 

Vote Save America has also created a tool to find out how to vote in one’s own state. The website compiled a list of all the states with how to vote, request an absentee ballot and find out election information about an individual’s state. It is often overwhelming for people to find out information on voting, which is why it is so crucial that Vote Save America created this guide. 

Making mail in voting accessible to all Americans is not to help the Democratic or Republican party, but it is to help Americans participate in the election to the fullest extent. Vote by mail is a key aspect of an election and it is especially important in 2020 when the stakes are so high.

With the official kick off to the general election after Labor Day, it is now likely voter season. What is the difference between likely voters and registered voters, and why do pollsters make the switch as the general election approaches?

Most polling organizations typically do poll likely voters until September. By September, both the Democrats and Republicans have held their conventions (both virtual this year), and voters are beginning to pay more attention to the campaigns. By beginning to measure likely voters after Labor Day, voters are more engaged and a more accurate sample is gathered. 

According to former Gallup Poll Editor in Chief, Frank Newport, registered voters are those who say they are “registered to vote in their precinct or election district.” This group of voters is used most of the time in polling, since it gives an estimate of Americans who are eligible to vote in an election and can vote if they choose to. 

Likely voters are those who are most likely to vote in the election. Pollsters use a variety of methods to figure out who these likely voters will be. Polling organizations add new questions to their polls in order to identify the ones who are likely to vote and change their question wording. These voters indicate in polls that they have a strong desire to vote on Election Day. 

Gallup has created their likely voter models that involve asking respondents a variety of questions about their interest in the coming election, past voting behavior and their intention to vote in the coming election. At Gallup, the questions used in the presidential election likely voter model are: 

1. Thought given to election
2. Know where people in neighborhood go to vote
3. Voted in election precinct before 
4. How often vote
5. Plan to vote in 2020 election
6. Likelihood of voting on a 10 point scale
7. Voted in the last presidential election. 

Gallup gives the respondents one point for each question they answer that is consistent with voting. 

Marist Poll also recently released their likely voter models, and how they determine who will be casting a ballot on Election Day. According to Director of the Marist Poll, Barbara Carvalho, “We ask several questions to identify likely voters: how interested a person is in the election, how they would rate their chance of voting, and if they’ve participated in similar elections in the past.” At the Marist Poll, they create an algorithm to determine the likelihood that the respondent will vote on Election Day. 

It is very difficult to identify who will actually vote. Respondents of polls can just say that they will vote, but not actually follow through on Election Day. It is important that pollsters use a combination of questions that measure the voting intention, interests in campaign and previous voting behavior.

The switch from registered voters to likely voters should be more representative how the electorate will look. As Election Day approaches, people become more engaged, and a much better sense of the polls will be created.

Although it feels like the general election has been occurring since March, the traditional official start to the general election is after Labor Day. Last week to kick off the general election season, Marist Poll and NBC News released two new polls in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania, conducted August 31- September 7. 

Starting with Florida, to no one’s surprise, Trump and Biden are neck and neck, at 48 percent each. The poll also demonstrates that Biden may have some struggles with Latino voters. Over the course of Biden’s campaign, he has had trouble capturing gaining Latino voters support. Trump is up four percentage points, 50 to 46 percent in Florida. According to the exit poll in 2016, Clinton had 62% of the Latino vote in Florida, while Trump only had 35%. 

There is also a shift in the candidate the seniors in the state are supporting. The Marist poll shows Biden has a small lead with senior voters in Florida, 49% Biden and 48% Trump. Back in 2016, Trump won by a wide margin in Florida among seniors with 57% of the vote, while Clinton had 40%, according to the exit poll. 

Less than a week later, Monmouth University released a poll. According to Monmouth, Biden is up 50 to 45 percentage points. The survey was conducted September 10th through the 13th among 428 registered voters in Florida.

With less than 50 days to Election Day, in Pennsylvania, Biden has a solid lead ahead of Trump by 9 percentage points, at 53 to 44 percentage points. Biden’s lead in his home state is due in part to support from suburban voters, and voters with college degrees. Biden leads Trump among suburban voters in the state by almost 20 points. 

Among independents voters, Biden is ahead of Trump 57 percent to 35 percent. Biden also has a solid base with nonwhite voters and women. Seventy-five percent of nonwhite voters in Pennsylvania support Biden, and 59 percent of women support the former vice president. 

Many pundits and strategists see Pennsylvania as the most important battleground state of 2020. Pennsylvania is Biden’s home state, yet Trump won the state narrowly in 2016. If Biden wins Florida, that could be enough electoral votes needed for the Democrats to win. Both of these states will continue to be watched as Election Day approaches.

Amelia Morel Infographic- Google Survey

As the general election is a mere 50 days away, it is important to gather data on how many individuals plan to vote by mail and how many plan to vote in person. The two questions asked of the respondents for this survey were, “Do you plan on voting by mail this upcoming Election Day (November 3rd),” and, “What is your party identification?”

This infographic represents the amount of respondents who plan to vote by mail, or vote in person, in comparison to party identification. As displayed in the first chart, 89.5% of respondents said that they planned to vote by mail for the upcoming election, while 10.5% of respondents plan to vote in person. As displayed in the second chart, 73.7% identify as Democrats, 10.5% identify as Republicans and 15.8% identify as Independent or unaffiliated. 

This data can be used to see how many individuals plan to vote by mail, based on party identification. It is interesting to see from the results that a large majority of respondents plan to vote by mail. This could be related to the pandemic, or because many of the respondents are college students who do not live in their home states.

A record fire season is underway in California this year, with over 3.1 million acres of land  burned. The news lead followed this week on Twitter was the devastating wildfires across the state of California and the millions of people this fire has displaced. Over the course of the week, new developments have occurred about the fires on Twitter, including the latest about Trump’s upcoming visit to the state.

At the beginning of last week on Twitter, new details emerged that the latest fire was sparked by a couple’s gender reveal party. According to the California Fire San Bernardino Unit, the fire was caused by “a smoke generating pyrotechnic device.” Many residents and Twitter users were angry to hear about the cause of the fire. The evacuations were ordered for Oak Glen, Mountain Home Village, Forest Falls and North Bench Yucaipa. The Yucaipa police department actively used Twitter to give information about the fires. 

Credit: ABC7 News Twitter

Credit: Yucaipa Police Twitter

As the week continued, the wildfires spread further across California, Oregon and parts of Washington, destroying homes and killing individuals. Many more had to evacuate their homes, as extreme heat and wind fueled the fires. Individuals took to Twitter to share images of the chilling orange sky. People described how difficult it is to breathe outside, and compared the sky to being in an “apocalypse.” 

Credit: Rachel Bishop Twitter

Credit: AJplus Twitter

As last week came to a close and the new week began, the fires continued to ravage on. President Trump is expected to make an appearance in California later on Monday, and be faced with the effects of climate change. President Trump and other Republicans have insisted that the fires are due to poor forest management, while experts assess that climate change is the cause of many of these fires. Scientists have stated that the rising temperatures on the planet are making fire seasons significantly longer, and creating much more destruction. Voters may hold him accountable for pushing off the science and making no attempt to minimize the effects of natural disasters. 

Credit: David Axelrod Twitter

Trump’s visit to California will be a two-hour stop during his trip to battleground states in the west. Trump only first tweeted about the fires on Friday night and has been mostly quiet about the state of the fires. 

Overall, Twitter has been an excellent source of information about the wildfires in California. Residents are able to clearly see evacuation orders, while other Americans can keep up with the latest developments.

August 2019: This article was written during my internship last summer with New York 1 News. The content is extremely relevant now as the general election approaches in November.

I don’t have time. I don’t know if I’m registered. I have more important things to do on Election Day. My vote doesn’t matter. 

We’ve all heard the excuses for why someone chose not to vote on Election Day. Whether it’s a small local election or a presidential election, everyone knows at least one person that chose to stay home rather than go to their local polling place to cast their vote on election day. 

Many Democratic residents of Queens had this attitude on primary election day at the end of last month. These residents figured their vote would not matter and that the election was not very important. But as it turns out, this election ended up being an extremely important and close race as establishment candidate, Melinda Katz, is ahead of progressive candidate,Tiffany Caban, by just 16 votes. 

On Election night, Caban declared victory as she was ahead by over 1,000 votes with more than 99% of votes counted. She announced at her election night party in Woodside, Queens, “Tonight, we won the Queens district attorney’s office!” Caban believed that night that even after the absentee ballots were counted, she would still have enough votes to secure the office. 

But as the absentee ballots began to be counted last week, that gap closed and Katz now leads Caban by less than twenty votes.

Melinda Katz is the current borough president of Queens and was originally the frontrunner in the race as she was well-established in Queens politics. Tiffany Caban is a 31 year old, Queer-Latina public defender that has a progressive agenda. Caban is a supporter of eliminating cash bail, decriminalizing sex work and not creating any new jails in Queens. 

In the last few weeks, there has been an unusual amount of attention paid to this local Queens election. Two presidential candidates, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, endorsed Caban. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez has also endorsed Tiffany Caban, and has been promoting Caban’s campaign over the last few weeks in rallies and public events. Caban has also received donations and support for her race from across the country. 

Despite the high stakes of this election and the national attention the Queens DA race has gained, many residents chose to stay home on primary Election Day. Less than 100,000 people voted for the next DA of Queens. 

The Queens District Attorney is a prime example of why voting in every election is extremely important no matter how small the race. An election can come down to just a few votes, and the outcome can greatly impact a community. Local elections effect and impact the lives of members of each community in the United States greatly. There is no level of government that is more directly responsible for serving communities than local elected officials. Local government affects most aspects of the daily lives of Americans across the country. The quality of schools is impacted by local elected officials, public safety, rent costs, affordable housing, policing, public transit and more. 

Many federal laws that have been put into place have started at the local and state level. Policies such as women’s suffrage, minimum wage, environmental protection, and marriage equality all began at the local and state level. By voting in local elections and holding local officials accountable for their actions, everyday Americans can create change that affects the country.

My experience working at Spectrum New York 1 News and covering the Queens District Attorney Race.

August 2019

From an insurgent’s campaign to a shocking primary night to a last minute turn of the tables, the Queens District Attorney’s race has finally come to an end. 

Tiffany Caban conceded the Queens District Attorney race to Melinda Katz last week, after the primary race had dragged on for six weeks. Katz won the primary election by just 55 votes after the recount ended.

Caban vowed to continue fighting, even after the New York City Board of Elections certified Katz as the winner a few weeks ago. The Caban team moved forward with a legal challenge of over 100 ballots that they claimed were wrongly invalidated by the Board of Elections. Last week, the judge on the case refused to reinstate the ballots in question. This left Caban down 55 votes and no hopes left of taking the office. 

Katz’s ultimate win was a reassurance to the Queens Democratic Party and Queens Machine that they are still powerful and can win against progressive candidates. The machine had suffered a major blow from Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez last year after she unseated longtime congressman, Joseph Crowley. 

But the district attorney race also revealed the traditional Democratic Party in Queens is vulnerable to progressive candidates. Caban was a first-time candidate and a former public defender, who vowed to end cash bail and no longer prosecute low level crimes. It was astonishing that she only lost by 55 votes, since Queens was known for “tough on crime” policies for decades. 

“We terrified the Democratic establishment,” Caban stated at an event with supporters last week. “You don’t have to work and build with an entrenched establishment to build a campaign that literally changes the course of history.” Caban assured her supporters that the campaign made a huge impact on politics in Queens. Katz was even pushed further left on her policies because of Caban’s influence during the campaign. 

What is next for the progressive Democrats in Queens and across the country? Caban vowed to completely change the way the district attorney’s office was run. She advocated for decriminalizing sex work, no longer prosecuting most marijuana offenses and ending cash bail. These ideas of reform in the criminal justice system stretched beyond Queens and even became talking points among democratic presidential candidates.  

Despite her loss, Caban’s message has spread further than just her county in New York City. Her ideas can guide future progressive candidates as they build their campaigns and create policies. Caban’s strategies to reform the criminal justice system have forced people to talk about the changes that need to be made. 

Caban also assured her supporters that her work in Queens is not done. Caban said last week at a gathering for her supporters,“You better believe I’m going to keep fighting.”