With the official kick off to the general election after Labor Day, it is now likely voter season. What is the difference between likely voters and registered voters, and why do pollsters make the switch as the general election approaches?
Most polling organizations typically do poll likely voters until September. By September, both the Democrats and Republicans have held their conventions (both virtual this year), and voters are beginning to pay more attention to the campaigns. By beginning to measure likely voters after Labor Day, voters are more engaged and a more accurate sample is gathered.
According to former Gallup Poll Editor in Chief, Frank Newport, registered voters are those who say they are “registered to vote in their precinct or election district.” This group of voters is used most of the time in polling, since it gives an estimate of Americans who are eligible to vote in an election and can vote if they choose to.
Likely voters are those who are most likely to vote in the election. Pollsters use a variety of methods to figure out who these likely voters will be. Polling organizations add new questions to their polls in order to identify the ones who are likely to vote and change their question wording. These voters indicate in polls that they have a strong desire to vote on Election Day.
Gallup has created their likely voter models that involve asking respondents a variety of questions about their interest in the coming election, past voting behavior and their intention to vote in the coming election. At Gallup, the questions used in the presidential election likely voter model are:
- Thought given to election
- Know where people in neighborhood go to vote
- Voted in election precinct before
- How often vote
- Plan to vote in 2020 election
- Likelihood of voting on a 10 point scale
- Voted in the last presidential election.
Gallup gives the respondents one point for each question they answer that is consistent with voting.
Marist Poll also recently released their likely voter models, and how they determine who will be casting a ballot on Election Day. According to Director of the Marist Poll, Barbara Carvalho, “We ask several questions to identify likely voters: how interested a person is in the election, how they would rate their chance of voting, and if they’ve participated in similar elections in the past.” At the Marist Poll, they create an algorithm to determine the likelihood that the respondent will vote on Election Day.
It is very difficult to identify who will actually vote. Respondents of polls can just say that they will vote, but not actually follow through on Election Day. It is important that pollsters use a combination of questions that measure the voting intention, interests in campaign and previous voting behavior.
The switch from registered voters to likely voters should be more representative how the electorate will look. As Election Day approaches, people become more engaged, and a much better sense of the polls will be created.
Amelia Morel 