Although it feels like the general election has been occurring since March, the traditional official start to the general election is after Labor Day. Last week to kick off the general election season, Marist Poll and NBC News released two new polls in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania, conducted August 31- September 7.
Starting with Florida, to no one’s surprise, Trump and Biden are neck and neck, at 48 percent each. The poll also demonstrates that Biden may have some struggles with Latino voters. Over the course of Biden’s campaign, he has had trouble capturing gaining Latino voters support. Trump is up four percentage points, 50 to 46 percent in Florida. According to the exit poll in 2016, Clinton had 62% of the Latino vote in Florida, while Trump only had 35%.
There is also a shift in the candidate the seniors in the state are supporting. The Marist poll shows Biden has a small lead with senior voters in Florida, 49% Biden and 48% Trump. Back in 2016, Trump won by a wide margin in Florida among seniors with 57% of the vote, while Clinton had 40%, according to the exit poll.
Less than a week later, Monmouth University released a poll. According to Monmouth, Biden is up 50 to 45 percentage points. The survey was conducted September 10th through the 13th among 428 registered voters in Florida.
With less than 50 days to Election Day, in Pennsylvania, Biden has a solid lead ahead of Trump by 9 percentage points, at 53 to 44 percentage points. Biden’s lead in his home state is due in part to support from suburban voters, and voters with college degrees. Biden leads Trump among suburban voters in the state by almost 20 points.
Among independents voters, Biden is ahead of Trump 57 percent to 35 percent. Biden also has a solid base with nonwhite voters and women. Seventy-five percent of nonwhite voters in Pennsylvania support Biden, and 59 percent of women support the former vice president.
Many pundits and strategists see Pennsylvania as the most important battleground state of 2020. Pennsylvania is Biden’s home state, yet Trump won the state narrowly in 2016. If Biden wins Florida, that could be enough electoral votes needed for the Democrats to win. Both of these states will continue to be watched as Election Day approaches.
Amelia Morel 